Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

IntroductionCoronavirus transmission is strongly influenced by human mobilities and interactions within and between different geographical regions. Human mobility within and between cities is motivated by several factors, including employment, cultural-driven, holidays, and daily routines. MethodWe developed a sustained metapopulation (SAMPAN) model, an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the effect of individual mobility and interaction behavior on the spreading of COVID-19 viruses across main cities on Java Island, Indonesia. The model considers social classes and social mixing affecting the mobility and interaction behavior within a sub-population of a city in the early pandemic. Travelers' behavior represents the mobility among cities from central cities to other cities and commuting behavior from the surrounding area of each city. ResultsLocal sensitivity analysis using one factor at a time was performed to test the SAMPAN model, and we have identified critical parameters for the model. While validation was carried out for the Jakarta area, we are confident in implementing the model for a larger area with the concept of metapopulation dynamics. We included the area of Bogor, Depok, Bekasi, Bandung, Semarang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, and Malang cities which have important roles in the COVID-19 pandemic spreading on this island. DiscussionOur SAMPAN model can simulate various waves during the first year of the pandemic caused by various phenomena of large social mobilities and interactions, particularly during religious occasions and long holidays.

Shifts of trade in Javan ferret badgers Melogale orientalis from wildlife markets to online platforms: Implications for conservation policy, human health and monitoring

Wildlife trade is increasingly impeding the conservation of imperilled wildlife and is a potential threat to human health. Ferret badgers are extensively traded in China, although the trends, drivers and health implications of ferret badger trade in other parts of Asia remain poorly known. Here, we focus on the pet trade of a little known endemic small carnivore species, Javan ferret badger Melogale orientalis in Indonesia, over a 10 yr period (2011−2020). The Javan ferret badger is listed as Least Concern on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species with an unknown population trend. We aimed to gain insight into the magnitude of this trade, its purposes, price trends, distribution records, health risks and shifts to online platforms. We documented 44 ferret badgers in 11 wildlife markets in Java and Bali and 100 ferret badgers for sale on online platforms. We observed a shift in trade from traditional animal markets only, to trade in these markets as well as online. Asking prices, corrected for inflation, declined significantly from ~USD 37 in 2012 to ~USD 22 in 2020, and were related to the purchasing power in cities where trade occurred. Wide-spread sale of the species highlights that enforcement continues to be overly passive as any trade in the species is illegal. We recommend that the Javan ferret badger be afforded full national pro-tection and prioritised in monitoring efforts to establish its true conservation status. Additionally, concerted efforts are needed to determine if online trade poses a risk to conservation and human health. © The authors 2021. Open Access under Creative Commons by Attribution Licence. Use, distribution and reproduction are un - restricted. Authors and original publication must be credited.